FXUS63 KBIS 101153 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 653 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near to below normal temperatures favored through early next week, with highs mostly in the 60s and 70s and lows mostly in the 40s. - Daily windy conditions expected through Saturday, strongest on Thursday. - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms today, mainly north and east of the Missouri River. Then higher chances for showers and a few thunderstorms on Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 653 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 Two main areas of showers exist at the time of this writing. One is a linear band from eastern Sioux County through Bismarck to around Harvey, and the other is a broader area approaching Williston. A few lightning flashes have been detected south of Bismarck within the last hour, but have been very infrequent. To the south and west of this, a trailing area of showers and isolated thunderstorms is passing through northwest South Dakota. This convection is not being handled well by guidance, so forecast adjustments may be needed should this persist into southern North Dakota later this morning. Elsewhere, a small area of dense fog has developed just to the south and west of the Turtle Mountains. The fog should not spread any farther, and should lift by mid morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 452 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 A longwave trough resides over the southern Canadian/northern US Rockies early this morning, with the upper jet at its base pointed from the Pacific Northwest to Wyoming, then curling back northeast toward the northern Red River Valley. Surface low pressure is analyzed over southwest Manitoba with a trough extending southward through the eastern Dakotas. Severe thunderstorms have now pushed well off to the east into Minnesota, but shortwave energy ejecting from the base of the longwave trough is bringing widely scattered showers to parts of western and central North Dakota early this morning. The most concentrated area of showers is across central North Dakota, which may be getting assistance from upper level divergence and mid level frontogenesis. There is also a more concentrated area of showers in northeast Montana that could pivot into northwest North Dakota near or after sunrise. CAMs have been showing a variety of solutions, but the general trend is for low to medium chances of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms persisting through the day, primarily north and east of the Missouri River. CAPE and shear are not forecast to be high enough to support severe convection this afternoon, but a stronger storm has been showing up occasionally in a handful of CAMs. It will be much cooler today, but still near normal with highs in the 70s. Westerly winds are forecast to increase to around 15-25 mph this afternoon, with gusts to around 25-35 mph. A positively-tilted mid level shortwave trough is forecast to emerge over the Northern Plains by Thursday morning. Model guidance is in strong agreement that Q-vector convergence collocated with the 700 mb vort max will swing a broad area of light rain showers into western and north central North Dakota Thursday morning. The Q-vector forcing is projected to wane by the afternoon, but cyclonic northwest flow combined with diurnal heating could allow scattered showers and thunderstorms to redevelop Thursday afternoon. CAPE around 500-1000 J/kg could support a few stronger storms on its own, but effective bulk shear and mid level lapse rates appear too weak. Thursday is forecast to be slightly cooler and windier than today, with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s and west-northwest winds around 20 to 30 mph, gusting to 35 to 45 mph. Medium to long range ensemble guidance shows a closed upper low meandering along the southern shores of Hudson Bay through the weekend as an upstream shortwave digs into the Northern Rockies. After a brief and slight warm up on Friday, below normal temperatures are favored over the weekend, with highs mainly in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Sheltered, low-lying areas in western parts of the state could even drop down into the upper 30s this weekend if overnight sky and wind conditions become favorable. Daytime winds are forecast to remain elevated through Saturday at around 15 to 25 mph out of the northwest. The latest NBM maintains a mostly dry forecast from Friday through the weekend, except in the southwest. But would not be surprised to see a few showers or thunderstorms from time to time given the predominant cyclonic flow. Even weak diurnal convection may be harder to come by this weekend though due to the cooler and drier air mass. Ensembles favor a northwest flow pattern persisting into next week as deep troughing lingers from Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes while an upper level ridge builds over the western CONUS, but clusters do show some uncertainty in the placement and amplitude of these features. Temperatures are favored to remain below normal until either the upstream ridge shifts eastward or flow aloft transitions to quasi-zonal later next week. Aside from a 20 to 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms on Monday, the NBM maintains a mostly dry forecast through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 653 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible throughout the day today. A heavier shower could cause brief MVFR visibility restrictions, but VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this evening. Later tonight, an area of light rain with MVFR ceilings is forecast to enter western and north central North Dakota, reaching KDIK and KMOT near the end of the forecast period. Westerly winds will increase to 15-25 kts this afternoon, with gusts to 25-35 kts. A westerly breeze around 10-15 kts will then persist through the night. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan DISCUSSION...Hollan AVIATION...Hollan