ACUS03 KWNS 080832
SWODY3
SPC AC 080831

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST IA AND PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to widespread severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday
from the southern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley
vicinity. All severe hazards are possible.

...Southern Plains to Mid-MS Valley Vicinity...

A complex scenario is expected to unfold on Monday and Monday night
across a broad warm sector from the southern Plains into the Mid-MS
Valley and Lake Michigan vicinity. An initially split-flow upper
level pattern will see an upper low and attendant trough over
northwest Mexico lift northeast across the southern Rockies into the
adjacent High Plains. As this occurs, a northern stream upper trough
will deepen over the northern/central Plains, with the two systems
merging by the end of the period. This will result in substantial
mid/upper southwesterly flow streaming across the area atop strong
low-level warm advection. A broad warm sector with surface dewpoints
in the 60s F will encompass much of OK/TX/eastern KS eastward into
the Mid/Lower MS Valley and Lower OH/TN Valleys. Two areas of
deepening surface low pressure are forecast -- one across the OK/TX
Panhandle vicinity, the other across northwest MO into IA. A dryline
will extend southward from the Plains low, and a warm front will
extend west to east from southern IA into northern IL/IN during the
afternoon. After 00z, a cold front will develop southeast, becoming
positioned from southern Lake Michigan southwest to central OK.
There is some uncertainty in the position of these surface features,
but this appears to be the best estimate at this time based on
various guidance.

Some uncertainty also exists with regards to capping, particularly
across OK into parts of MO. Nevertheless, strong vertical shear atop
a very moist warm and moderately unstable airmass should support
scattered to possibly widespread severe thunderstorms. Supercell
wind profiles will support large to very large hail where discrete
convection occurs. Linear forcing along surface boundaries also may
favor linear segments, especially after dark. Tornado potential may
be maximized near the surface warm front/triple point across parts
of MO/IL and far southeast IA. Outlook areas may change some in the
coming days as mesoscale details become better resolved.

..Leitman.. 03/08/2026

$$