FXHW60 PHFO 011317
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
317 AM HST Sun Mar 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A light east to southeast wind pattern will continue through this
afternoon as a weakening cold front approaches Kauai from the
west breaking down the ridge over the Hawaii Region. Local scale
onshore seabreezes will form over terrain sheltered leeward areas
due to the lack of large scale winds. The eastward movement of
this front will stall out near Kauai today and Monday as the front
dissipates near the western edge of the state. Moderate to
locally breezy easterly trade winds will strengthen across the
Hawaii region from Monday through Wednesday with brief passing
windward and mountain shower activity. Trade winds weaken again
with returning sea breezes from Thursday onward as another weak
cold front approaches the islands from the northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The satellite imagery this morning shows a large band of high
level jet stream cirrus clouds blanketing the islands. Expect
cloudy skies from these high clouds to continue through Monday as
a weakening cold front approaches the Hawaiian Islands from the
west. The short range forecast guidance continues to show the
forward motion with this front stalling out and dissipating near
Kauai through Monday. Periods of enhanced showers are possible
starting tonight over the western islands of Kauai and Niihau
with some brief showers spreading as far east as Oahu and Molokai.
Lighter winds will continue to produce sea breezes along terrain
sheltered leeward slopes of each island.

This period of light winds will begin to transition back to
trade winds by Monday. These easterly trade winds will strengthen
into the moderate to locally breezy range on Tuesday and
Wednesday with brief passing windward and mountain showers,
favoring the overnight to early morning hours.

By Thursday, another weak cold front approaches the islands from
the northwest direction, weakening the ridge north of the islands,
and producing another round of east-southeasterly winds lingering
into the weekend. Strong stable subsidence will keep shower
activity to a minimum on Thursday. However by Friday an upper
level disturbance over the region may increase shower activity as
temperature inversion heights rise into the 7,000 to 8,000 foot
range lasting through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
A light to moderate ESE wind regime will persist today as a
weakening front continues to approach Kauai from the west. Light
winds will continue to allow daytime seabreezes and nighttime land
breezes to occur. Chances for showers over the western half of
the state increase due to lingering moisture from the stalled
front. Showers will continue over windward sections of the Big
Island through the morning. Primarily MVFR conditions will occur
within showers, while VFR prevails elsewhere.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for tempo mountain obscuration over the
southeast slopes of the Big Island and is expected to continue
through the morning hours. No other AIRMETS are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to locally fresh east to southeast winds will continue
today as a weakening front stalls and diminishes near the western
end of the state. This will allow localized land and sea breeze
conditions to develop near sheltered coasts, particularly for the
western end of the state closer to the trough. Fresh to locally
strong easterly trades will return by Tuesday as surface ridge
strengthens to the north, at which time Small Craft Advisories
will likely be needed for the typically windy waters of Maui
County and the Big Island.

Surf along north and west-facing shores will continue to trend up
slightly today as a fresh west-northwest swell arrives from a
broad gale that was located south of the Aleutians near the Date
Line. This swell will peak late today into Monday before
gradually lowering by midweek.

Surf along exposed east-facing shores will trend up slightly today
as a fresh, short- to medium-period northeast swell from a gale
centered around 1200 nautical miles northeast of the state
arrives. Short-period and choppy conditions are expected to return
by Tuesday as fresh trade winds redevelop and expand upstream of
the state.

Surf along south-facing shores will remain near the seasonal
average into March.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bohlin
AVIATION...Shigesato
MARINE...Vaughan