FXUS62 KILM 271918 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 318 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in through Monday before sliding offshore Tuesday and Wednesday. Above normal temperatures begin Tuesday, with rain chances returning late in the week ahead of the next cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will build into the area from the north through Monday. N-NE winds on the front end will advect dry and cool air into the area with dewpoint temps down in the 40s across much of the area through Mon. Some mid to high clouds will mix with the sun today, but should see plenty of sunshine on Monday. Temps tonight will drop out after sunset with near calm winds leading to lows just below 50 in most spots inland of the coast. Highs tomorrow will be a bit warmer than today with mid to upper 70s. As the high shifts eastward, the winds will start to becoming more onshore with a healthy sea breeze in the afternoon along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Quiet weather continues through the short term period as mid level ridge is strong over the Southeast, with surface high pressure centered offshore. One more night of below normal temps Monday night with lows in the low 50s (upper 40s in cold spots) due to clear skies and calm winds. Warm and sunny Tuesday with highs in the low 80s. Near normal low temps Tuesday night, thanks to WAA, in the upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry weather continues through Thursday as subsidence from ridge aloft maintains influence. Low-level WAA will push temps above normal, in mid to upper 80s during the day and low 60s during the night. Ridge finally breaks down, with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s and decent mid-level lapse rates leading to increased instability Friday afternoon. Currently have 30-40% pops Friday afternoon and evening for scattered convection. The next cold front is forecasted to move through Friday night into early Saturday as an upper trough moves across the Great Lakes/Northeast. Pops linger into Saturday due to uncertainty in front timing and potential delayed arrival of dry air aloft. High pressure attempts to build in from the northwest next weekend, which would lead to (slightly) cooler temps. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR expected through the TAF period. Northeasterly surge is subsiding leaving NE winds less than 10 mph with a few higher gusts. Coastal terminals may experience a veering of winds to a more easterly direction for a few hours this afternoon in sea breeze, but generally winds will be light and will cut off after sunset, 00-01z and then pick back up slightly after 12z on Mon. As high pressure builds in, it will remain dry, but will see some passing mid to high clouds through tonight. Extended Outlook...Generally VFR. MVFR/IFR with both visibility and ceilings possible Wednesday morning and Thursday morning. && .MARINE... Through Monday... High pressure will build down from the north through Monday. A N-NE surge has subsided leaving winds manly around 10 kts with some higher gusts. Near shore winds were a bit gustier and more easterly in the aftn sea breeze. As the high shifts more eastward into Mon, the return flow will become more E and onshore with similar fairly light winds except for aftn sea breeze near shore. Seas will be around 2-4 ft through Mon with a longer period easterly swell mixing in. Monday Night through Friday...Sub-advisory marine conditions expected through the end of this week. High pressure just offshore will lead to light onshore flow through Tuesday before shifting to south- southwesterly late Tuesday through Friday. Wind speeds increase to 15-20 kts Thursday afternoon through Friday as a cold front approaches from the west. Seas generally 2-3 ft through Thursday, increasing to 4 ft Friday, combination of E swell and building S wind wave. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... King tides will lead to higher-than-normal astronomical tides for the next several high tide cycles. Thus, a few rounds of minor tidal flooding are likely along the Cape Fear River around downtown Wilmington and minor coastal flooding is possible at the beaches as well. Check for any Coastal Flood Advisories for further details. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...VAO LONG TERM...VAO AVIATION...RGZ MARINE...RGZ/VAO TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...