FXUS62 KILM 271434 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1034 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in today through Monday before sliding offshore Tuesday and Wednesday. Above normal temperatures begin Tuesday, with rain chances returning late in the week ahead of the next cold front. && .UPDATE... Forecast on track with plenty of dry air advecting in with decent NE surge this morning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A sharp cold front/undular bore can be seen as a multi-banded thin-lined feature on radar and as a cloud band on satellite imagery dropping southward through the forecast area at this hour with a wind shift to north-northwesterly being observed across the boundary along with a band of low clouds as low-level moisture is lifted over the front. Temps are also warming as this initial surge mixes the air and pressure increases under the frontal wedge. Looking further upstream over central NC, a secondary surge of northerly flow can be seen as well, and this will bring the real cold advection with gusty north winds taking over late in the night and continuing through this morning. Most or all low clouds should clear the forecast area by sunrise with a mix of mid-upper cloudiness streaming overhead through today as vort maxes embedded in the west-northwesterly flow aloft pass through. Surface high pressure will build southward today, helping to relieve the pressure gradient through the day, causing gusty winds this morning to relax this afternoon. Highs will be tempered by cold advection ahead of this high pressure system, with mid-70s expected across the area. Tonight, with high pressure settling over central NC, the pressure gradient is expected to become weak. This should allow for light and variable winds this evening with some areas even going calm. Amid mainly clear skies and much lower dew points, a relatively chilly night is in store as great radiational cooling takes place away from the immediate coast. Expect upper 40s to low 50s away from the coast with mid-upper 50s along it. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Sfc high pressure centers itself over eastern NC on Monday leading to another dry day with a sunny sky and aftn sea breeze. Temps right at normal levels for late April...highs in the mid/upr 70s with nighttime lows ranging through the 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Previous thinking remains on track this period, with above normal temps and increasing rain chances late in the week. Highs in the upr 70s to lwr 80s Tuesday increase to the low/mid 80s Wednesday as mid-level ridging and associated subsidence keep the forecast dry. Thursday is trending a bit drier as well, with most guidance slower with the ridge transitioning offshore...kept a slight chance of showers over NW areas during the aftn. Better rain chances (30-40% PoPs) then arrive Friday aftn/evening associated with an approaching mid-level shortwave trough and associated cold front. Kept some low PoPs for Saturday as the front could potentially take longer to cross the area with this being several days out. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front has cleared the terminals early this morning with a north-northeasterly wind surge poised to arrive over the next few hours, bringing gusty winds to around 20 kts through this morning. Upstream observations indicate transient MVFR cigs may follow behind the incoming wind surge, but these will be relatively short-lived as insolation helps to increase vertical mixing while increasing subsidence aloft brings drier air downward. Low-level winds weaken this afternoon as the gradient slackens, so expect the gustiness to subside as well. Otherwise, expect VFR to dominate the TAF period outside of any MVFR cigs this morning. High pressure centers itself over central NC tonight, with a weak pressure gradient supporting light winds at most terminals, except perhaps KLBT, where calm winds are more likely. Nevertheless, with dry and subsiding air aloft, conditions are not supportive for mist/fog growth beyond shallow ground fog, especially over sources of moisture. Extended Outlook...Generally VFR. MVFR/IFR with both visibility and ceilings possible Wednesday morning and Thursday morning. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... A sharp cold front will continue southward early this morning, pushing through the waters before sunrise. A north- northeasterly surge will follow 2-3 hrs behind this initial wind shift, with gusty winds in the 20-25 kt range through this morning before subsiding this afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes. Outer portions of the coastal water zones may briefly see gusts just over 25 kts, mainly between 11-13Z, but this anticipated short period and small areal coverage precludes the need for an SCA at this time. Wave heights around 2-4 ft this morning will gradually subside this afternoon and evening to 1-3 ft for tonight. The wave spectrum will remain a combination of ESErly 1-2 ft swells with a period of 9 sec and 1-3 ft north-northeasterly wind waves which veer to northeasterly this afternoon. Monday through Thursday...Sub-SCA conditions this period as sfc high pressure builds over the waters then gradually shifts farther offshore. Winds up to 10-15 kt with seas steady at 2-3 ft, a combination of persisting E swell and slowly building S wind waves. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... King tides will lead to higher-than-normal astronomical tides for the next several high tide cycles. Thus, a few rounds of minor tidal flooding are likely along the Cape Fear River around downtown Wilmington and minor coastal flooding is possible at the beaches as well. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...RGZ NEAR TERM...ABW SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...ABW MARINE...MAS/ABW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...