FXUS62 KILM 291724 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 124 PM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Offshore high pressure will prevail through the weekend. An upper level disturbance will kick off showers Sunday into Sunday night. Additional showers with strong thunderstorms expected Monday and Monday night with a cold front. High pressure will then return Tuesday before shifting offshore mid to late next week. && .UPDATE... No major changes to the public/marine forecasts with the latest update, although issued a Marine Weather Statement to highlight the low tide levels this afternoon. The updated aviation discussion can be found below. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Weak mid-level ridge axis generally across the SE States and overhead progged to slide off the SE States Coast this period. At the same time, an approaching mid-level trof across the Lower Mississippi Valley will be on the doorsteps of the FA at the end of this period. As a result, looking at 1 more dry day as well as another above normal temps day/night. Looking at increasing humidity as well as dewpoints push hier due to the southerly flow. Sfc high well offshore from NC Coast, will ridge back to the west and inland in the vicinity of the NC-SC border. Atm across the area remains somewhat capped meaning do not expect any appreciable vertical development from the afternoon/evening Cu. Max temps generally around 80, except around 70 for the immediate coast with onshore flow pushing across local SSTs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Mild for tonights lows, upper 50s to around 60. Showers will be on the doorsteps of the FA by the end of this period as the midlevel trof moves closer from the west. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A shortwave just north of the ArkLaTex region quickly moves northeastward through the Ohio River Valley by late Sunday night. This will help push the offshore surface high further out to sea. Southerly flow increases and moisture gets deeper throughout the column. Sunday morning starts off dry, but rain chances gradually pick up from west to east by the afternoon. There appears to be enough instability and lift to warrant a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, but no severe weather is expected at this time. Highs Sunday in the mid-to- upper 70s for most, with a few places across the Pee Dee region having a shot at 80 degrees. While the instability comes down Sunday night, rain chances still remain. Lows in the lower 60s. Main focus continues to be a cold front that tries to bring severe weather to the area Monday. The situation appears to be a bit different this time around, with more CAPE and less shear (usually, it's the opposite). Despite ample cloud cover, rich moisture from the SSW allows for plenty of buoyancy. SBCAPE and MLCAPE both look to creep up into the 800-1500 J/kg range. However, there could be mismatches in the timing of the best CAPE and the best shear. The higher shear parameters don't come in until after sunset, and even then, they're not as impressive as they could be (bulk shear may struggle to hit 50 kts). Even if the better shear is realized, the lack of daytime heating at this point means that the instability comes back down. All of this to say, there's still plenty of uncertainty to contend with. Thunderstorms look more likely in the afternoon and evening. Severe weather threats look more focused on wind and hail, with tornadoes a possibility as well. Highs Monday a degree or two warmer than the previous day. Lows Monday night in the upper 50s to near 60. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Front slows down and struggles to push offshore Tuesday. Even so, there's enough veering and westerly flow aloft to drop off the rain chances, with highs in the low-to-mid 70s. Lows Tuesday night in the low-to-mid 50s. Front finally pushes further offshore Tuesday night, losing its old characteristics. It then surges northward as a warm front Wednesday into Thursday, bringing more moisture into the atmospheric column again. Isolated showers possible everyday, particularly inland. Temperatures warm considerably each day, particularly towards Thursday and Friday. Highs easily shoot up into the mid-to-upper 80s. Even areas at the immediate coast may see the upper 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High confidence in mainly VFR conditions through 18Z Sunday as high pressure centered to the east continues to stretch west into the area. However, toward the end of the period the weakening high combined with some upper-level energy will yield some showers across the area, although not quite enough confidence in any significant impacts to warrant mention at this time. The other potential causes of restrictions will be from low clouds and maybe some fog tonight, but again confidence remains too low in occurrence/location to mention. Extended Outlook...Low confidence in flight restrictions each morning thru Mon due to ground fog and low stratus. Increasing moisture and convection Sun aftn and evening will lead to moderate confidence for flight restrictions. A better chance of moderate to high confidence flight restrictions Mon into Mon night from convection along and ahead of an eastward progressing cold front. VFR dominates Tue thru Thu but brief restrictions mainly from showers/storms are possible Wed/Thu as high pressure shifts offshore allowing moisture levels to increase a bit. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Surface ridge axis will extend westward from the high's center well offshore from NC during this period. This ridge axis will generally meander and extend onshore between Cape Fear and Murrells Inlet during this period. This will result in wind directions running SSW north of the axis to SSE south of the axis. The sfc pg will relatively hold as is thru the period with windspeeds generally around 10 kt or 10-15 kt. Nearshore this afternoon into the evening, may observe 15 to 20+ kt gusts due to an active and inland progressing sea breeze. Seas generally 1 to 3 ft today and building 2 to 4 ft tonight with a SE wave at 7+ second periods dominating the seas spectrum. Sunday through Wednesday...Southeasterly winds gradually veer to the southwest through Monday, picking up in speed. Sustained winds at 10- 15 kts become more consistent, with gusts easily eclipsing 20 kts. Seas at mostly 3-4 ft through this point. Cold front approaches the area Monday night, allowing 6 ft seas to possibly build in across the southeast NC coastal waters. Small Craft Advisory conditions possible, but it isn't a slam dunk here. Front slowly moves further offshore, creating westerly winds at first, becoming more variable throughout the day Tuesday. Seas quickly drop back down to 3-4 ft (if advisory conditions are realized, it would only be for a few hours). Easterly winds at 15 kts build in late Tuesday night through Wednesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Low tide levels around -1.0 ft MLLW or a bit lower are expected this afternoon and we have issued a Marine weather statement to highlight the potential impact to marine navigation. Similar conditions are possible through at least Sunday. Tide levels could get high enough to cause minor coastal flooding early next week. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...RJB NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...IGB LONG TERM...IGB AVIATION...RJB MARINE...DCH/IGB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...