FXUS62 KILM 290117 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 917 PM EDT Fri Mar 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue over the region through Sunday. A cold front will move across the region on Monday. Chances of showers increase on Sunday, with thunderstorms Monday into Monday night. High pressure will return on Tuesday through Friday. && .UPDATE... No big changes necessary from the previous forecast with this update. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Surface high pressure centered offshore will continue to ridge west into the area through the period while upper-level high pressure slips a bit more east of the area on Saturday. Meanwhile, a weak coastal trough off the SC coast will be shifting northward and dissipating. This pattern will mean generally increasing moisture levels and above normal temperatures with lows tonight in the mid to upper 50s and highs Saturday near 80 inland away from the cooler coastal areas. May see a bit of ground fog and/or low clouds early Sat AM due to the increasing dewpoints but much depends on cloud coverage and confidence remains low in this occurring. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... At 500 millibars, a shortwave trough over southern Illinois will continue to weaken and shift to the north of the area on Sunday. A second strong shortwave will located over the plains late Sunday night and will be a focus of weather on Monday. The deep moisture reflected in the model precipitable water increases to 1.5". The surface high pressure will continue to shift eastward, and southwesterly to south flow will be established. With weak large-scale lift and low instability on Sunday, a chance of a shower is possible on Sunday afternoon into the overnight. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The cold front advertised to move across the Carolinas on Monday and Monday night continues to be the significant forecast issue in the extended forecast. Ahead of the front, the models show the 300 mb jet slightly weaker north of our area. The NAM best shear over the area is around 00 UTC on Tuesday, and the CAPES are generally in the 750-1000 J/kg range. The model's depiction of the convection differs, with the GFS showing convection along the coast at 00 UTC Tuesday and the NAM showing most of the convection farther to the west. The timing of the winds and instability do not seem to be aligned well, so confidence on the strength and timing of the convective event is low. High pressure will return late Tuesday into Thursday, with isolated precipitation. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High confidence in VFR and dry conditions through the 00Z TAF period. Winds will diminish below 10 kt this evening following the loss of daytime heating, becoming 10-15 kt out of the south daytime Saturday with FEW/SCT high clouds as sfc high pressure remains offshore. Otherwise, just a very small chance for MVFR fog Saturday morning due to the light return flow. Extended Outlook...Low confidence in flight restrictions each morning due to ground fog. Increasing moisture and convection Sun aftn and evening could lead to flight restrictions as well, with the better chance of flight restrictions coming Mon from convection along and ahead of an eastward progressing cold front. VFR dominates Tue. && .MARINE... Through Saturday...High confidence this period with no big marine concerns due to high pressure centered to the east remaining in control. That means southerly winds, enhanced a bit at times up to 15-20 kt near the coast due to the aftn/eve sea breeze each day. Significant wave heights will mainly be 3 ft or less, but could reach 4 ft by the end of the period off the SC coast due to an increasing SE swell. Saturday Night through Tuesday...High pressure will shift farther east over the weekend into early next week with persistent southerly return flow. By late Sun into Mon winds will increase up to 15 kt with higher gusts. The southerly push will bring seas to 3 to 4 ft by Sat night with a further increase as winds pick up later on Sun. Seas up to 4 to 5 ft Sun night should reach 4 to 6 ft on Mon ahead of cold front. The cold front should move through by early Tues with a wind shift to the NW. The offshore flow should help to bring seas down to 4 to 5 ft on Tues. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...MAS NEAR TERM...RJB SHORT TERM...RH LONG TERM...RH AVIATION...MAS MARINE...RJB/RH